tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post4496366663553424200..comments2023-10-22T17:43:54.334-04:00Comments on The CRE Review: CMBS Delinquencies Acceleratecrabsofsteelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13395961726023130183noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post-72787088420905079502010-02-11T13:27:50.085-05:002010-02-11T13:27:50.085-05:00Meant to say, "those numbers are NOT complete...Meant to say, "those numbers are NOT completely fair without a WALA context"<br /><br />I just used 30+ and FC and REOs in that example because it was readily available. I agree though - usually do not count 30-59 bucket in a delinquency number.Concrete Junglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11836938255282346931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post-89866663143969653212010-02-10T20:04:49.467-05:002010-02-10T20:04:49.467-05:00what's your measure of delinquent? I usually d...what's your measure of delinquent? I usually don't count 30 days, even though half of those do end up as 60 days.crabsofsteelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post-43690957190107013742010-02-10T20:03:57.475-05:002010-02-10T20:03:57.475-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.crabsofsteelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post-28976197321850000652010-02-10T10:00:28.675-05:002010-02-10T10:00:28.675-05:00They're around 7.25%, pretty bad. Originators ...They're around 7.25%, pretty bad. Originators with comparable or larger volumes that are worse: Column (9.94%), CIBC (9.70%), Nomura (11.65%!)<br /><br />Originators with comparable or larger volumes that are better:<br />BOA (3.89%), LaSalle/pre-BOA (5.56%) Barclays (7.24%), Bear (6.05%), GE (4.87%), JPM (4.82%), Lehman (5.75%), Merrill/pre-BOA (4.46%), MS (3.78%), Wachovia (4.43%), and Wells/pre-Wachovia (3.21%).<br /><br />Those numbers are completely fair without a WALA context - i.e. Citi's is just 50 months compared to Nomura's 75 months.Concrete Junglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11836938255282346931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post-45108077806753483492010-02-08T08:32:17.479-05:002010-02-08T08:32:17.479-05:00Representative of Citi as a whole. They screwed u...Representative of Citi as a whole. They screwed up everything they got involved in, starting with Salomon. If you've got the data handy, take a look at whose CRE loans are the most delinquent.crabsofsteelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post-80876480858781371722010-02-07T14:55:47.126-05:002010-02-07T14:55:47.126-05:00yeah, and 10-year cumulative loss forecasts in the...yeah, and 10-year cumulative loss forecasts in the 6 or 7% area, I think.Concrete Junglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11836938255282346931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7693451999817479352.post-50760164727998170052010-02-05T09:54:29.371-05:002010-02-05T09:54:29.371-05:00Didn't that same research group (while Wheeler...Didn't that same research group (while Wheeler was still there) say that 2009 year-end delinquencies would not exceed 2 or3%? I do recall...crabsofsteelnoreply@blogger.com