Showing posts with label Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

TALF changing to SUC OFF

Anonymous Banker has a good point. TALF doesn't really solve any problems. It doesn't matter if you're talking about new issue or legacy, TALF will not be the savior. It is riddled with issues that hinder its own success.

A) Diverse Collateral - unless the FRBNY looks the other way, the DDR deal is simply not diverse. It is 100% one sponsor, and 100% retail. The deal makes sense - we should support loans to institutional quality collateral, even when the sponsors have a BB+ rating, but this deal does not pass the diversity test. (Fortress likely passes, but the other deals in the pipeline don't pass this test either)

B) Failure to Specify TALF Eligibility Requirements - They've basically said, hey, we'll fund it as long as it is AAA and diverse, but we may reject it anyway. So, investors have to buy the bond with the added risk that they may be stuck with it and no TALF loan to leverage it (and a lower price b/c the NYFRB will immediately tell everyone they rejected it). It's the equivalent of telling your assistant to get you a triple-venti non-fat latte, and then throwing it in her face when she gets back from running down the street in the rain because the cup had a black lid instead of white one.

And more specifically to AB's point - what does TALF do to restart the loan market? CMBS was only about a quarter of the CRE lending market to start with, and it's maturity problems are mostly down the road 7+ years, unlike banks. Someone needs to step up and provide some very concrete guidelines and give the market some confidence.

-Stop all this FASB nonsense - just come up with a set of rules and implement it. Preferably stick to rules that aren't stupid like most of your recent changes.

-Stop all this talk about requiring issuers to retain an interest in securities - this already existed (see ABS Auto deals, or Specials on CMBS deals) and it doesn't solve the problem. "Hi, I'm XYZ 2009-1 and the government requires me to retain 10% of the deal on my books, so I'm going to increase some other costs by 10% and value that at near $0.00. Worst-case, we lose nothing and likely case is that value increases to something more than $0.00." "Oh yeah, and because of the new stupid FASB rule, I'm still going to have to put 100% of the deal on my balance sheet, even though I only actually have 10% on there)!"

-If you're going to give investors cheap leverage, how about giving very defined rules on how bonds will be eligible (or just publish a list of CUSIPs you nimrods). While you're at it, how about letting us use our Social Security savings and letting us leverage up on the assets. These aren't 144a. Plop them in a public fund and give us an option - hell, I'll take an $8,000 tax credit, or the clunker value of my primary vehicle, and put it in the fund out of the kindness of my heart to get things started. My tax rate next year is going to be 57% all in, I'm paying 100% of my insurance, rent, mortgage, vehicle loans, etc. - it's time for me to get something back for that, and I want control over as much of my money as possible. Why should some douche managing a fund get to benefit from my tax dollars (my 57 cents of every dollar I earn)?

-Instead of some useless scheme such as TALF, why not sell CDS on the new issue deals. This way an investor can offset their risk, at their own free will, and the government will receive a market-based fee for taking on that risk (a risk that will be far less than 3 or 4 times the purchase price, which is TALF). Structure it to benefit the taxpayer - I'm sure you guys have some great thoughts on this.

-Workout some reinsurance scheme. You can even support a third party to do it to keep the risk as far away from the taxpayer as possible. Offer it on whole loan portfolios, not just securities like CMBS - let an insurer offset some of their risk so they'll underwrite new portfolio loans (they still have money coming in that they need to put to work).



Wednesday, June 24, 2009

CMBS spreads unchanged to slightly tighter on bad news

How can spreads be unchanged today! A ton of bad news comes out and spreads go down or sit tight - sounds like the equity market.
  • ESH bankruptcy front page news - WSJ misrepresents the CMBS debt and quotes an idiotic lawyer who doesn't know who owns the bonds and apparently never used the PHDC function in Bloomberg or called the Trustee (who delivers coupon payments to the bondholders every single month).
  • Red Roof Inn defaults - again WSJ reporting. It's in several CMBS deals as previously noted.
  • Tishman defaulted on an $86mm (86, the same age as Alan Tishman when he passed on) land loan on 42 acres it purchased just 3 years ago.
  • Worldwide Plaza can't close a deal.
  • Naysayers of the current government "plans" are claiming to be in the Appalachian forests but are found to actually be cutting through the Argentinian bush.
  • Six Flags - bankrupt. (Looked at a CMBS loan once - hah).
  • Eddie Bauer - bankrupt. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (WTF)?
  • Reuhl (aka Abercrombie & Fitch subsidiary) - bankrupt.
  • Even the Pink Elephant went bankrupt last week.
  • Apartment rents in Manhattan dropped 12.3% - to JUST $3k or so for a 2 bedroom apartment without a bedroom. In the real world (outside of the city) that would buy you a far more than average house worth more than half a million (assuming T&I of $3.6k per year, a 20% downpayment, 30-yr mtg, and 5% or 6% interest). Not to mention that the median income of the entire country, including Manhattan, is just about $10k more a year than an 'average' apartment in NYC would cost you!

I guess news like BB&B earning money last quarter (mainly because its competitors are just empty store fronts now), ReREMIC deals, and hopes that TALF 2.1 works are carrying the market through. Spreads didn't move today.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Update: Ed McMahon was also 86 when he passed, on the 23rd! Further, Eddie Bauer (the human) died in 1986, the same year Billy Ocean and The Cure and even The Eurythmics put on shows at Six Flags, the number for the Chinese manufacturer that makes the clothes sold at Reuhl stores begins with 86 (China's country code), Governor Sanford 86'd his family this very week to get his jollys on with his latina lover, I once stayed very near the #86 Red Roof Inn (in Richmond, VA) at a much nicer establishment in town, I have driven by the #86 Extended Stay south of Charlotte within the last month, Maxwell Smart was Agent 86, the Sopranos had 86 series (so did Secret Agent Man), not to mention that the ship my grandfather served on in the war is docked at pier 86 in Manhattan at this very moment! There is definitely a pattern here - it involves Tishman, although it is unclear at this time what the precise connection is - stay tuned for further updates.

Just give me time - I'll tie McMahon to all this somehow - the Donald did bail him out of foreclosure... Check back for further updates...