Monday, April 21, 2014

Goodbye

We've had a good run, but have just gotten too busy to keep posting on a regular basis. So, we're going to shut this blog down.

If anyone wants to take it over, email me at credarkspace@gmail.com.

Monday, April 14, 2014

We have met the Enemy, and He is Us

SEC investigating big players in bond market, but not the biggest:
"The lopsided bond market has caught the attention of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Not only is the SEC examining whether the biggest players get preferential prices and access because of their influence...Bill Gross and Larry Fink manage a $3 trillion pile of bonds...". What?!?!, the Fed balance sheet just surpassed $4 TRILLION all by its little ol' self. You take Mortgages + Treasuries and you're right around the $30 trillion mark, and the largest investors are the US Treasury and the Fed, and its almost impossible to mark the size of the exposure the US Treasury has but their risk is certainly higher than the Fed, and canyons of risk larger than any group of private funds.

You have to assume the article was written by a comedian, except they're being serious and we really do live in a world where the government creates a false market, private companies change their rules so they can operate in the fake market place, and then the government investigates the private companies for "creating" new risks. "We're going to need new regulations to regulate the private players who adapted to our old regulations, which in hindsight caused more problems than they solved, but, hey, we didn't see that coming". (that isn't an actual quote from the article, it is an attempt at sarcasm)

Here is another one, from the article, "While regulators have looked at the threat to the financial system posed by too-big-to-fail banks, hazard has migrated to money managers." Bless their hearts. They still don't realize they are, themselves, the problem.

"Investors typically get worse prices when they trade smaller blocks of bonds. One day last month, dealers sold $15,000 of steel company ArcelorMittal SA’s bonds maturing in 2041 for 3.5 cents on the dollar more than they paid to buy $25,000 of the same securities an hour later. By contrast, two exchanges of $100,000 or more of the debt that day were within 0.05 cent of one another, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority." I saw a plus-sized lady just this weekend buying a 12 pack of pepsi with extra sugar and the per can price was far below a single-can price. We need a regulator to start looking at this type of activity at CostCo and Super Walmart, someone call their congressman pronto!

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

CRE NPL Deal in the market - includes some assets from the CWCapital auction

See write-up from Herschmeyer over at Co-Star:

The assets have an aggregate unpaid principal balance (UPB) of $899.3 million, were acquired for $455.8 million...

...The largest portfolio (34%) is comprised of 18 CRE assets that previously served as collateral in various CMBS transactions and were acquired by Oaktree from special servicer CW Capital Asset Management LLC (CW Capital) in February 2014.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

JC Penney Store Closings

Bloomberg had an article regarding JC Penney closures and their impact on CMBS out last week. It noted that JC Penney is the biggest tenant in the CMBS market (is this accurate?) and the move highlights the "widening chasm" between successful malls and dying malls.


CW Capital Auction

We're starting to see results from the CWCapital Auction trickle out in servicer reports and in the news.


In particular:


  1. 119 West 40th Street (GSMS 2007-GG10) - latest file reflects a $171mm sales price (note this reflects the listed proceeds in the monthly report and is higher than the BBG article estimate). Unlike the other loans in this list, this is a loan sale (the others were REO already). It is 106% of outstanding loan balance, a 40% premium over the 9/2012 appraisal,  and resulted in a 30% loss severity.

  2. Two California Plaza (GSMS 2007-GG10) - CIM purchased. No price or estimate available. Largest asset in the sale. BBG noted that part of the transaction included CIM taking over property at the end of 2014 (REO sale). The most recent appraisal was $343mm in 1/2013 vs a $468mm loan balance outstanding. 

  3. Montclair Plaza (WBCMT 2006-C28) - CIM purchased for $170mm, 89% of outstanding balance, 13% over 2/2013 appraisal, 29% estimated loss severity (after accounting for advances, etc.).

  4. Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas (WBCMT 2006-C28) - BBG estimates $150.5mm sales price, 86% of outstanding loan value, 12% premium over the 9/2013 appraisal, 28% estimated loss severity (after accounting for advances, etc.).


As an aside, the BBG article mentioned PCV/ST in the context of the $3.4 billion appraisal from 9/2013, and the increasing likelihood of a disposition in the second half of 2014.








Thursday, January 16, 2014

JCP Closing 33 Stores

According to the WSJ, JCP is closing 33 Stores. I'll update this entry with CMBS exposures if/when I get a chance.



AL
Selma
Selma Mall
CA
Rancho Cucamonga
Arrow Plaza
CO
Colorado Springs
Chapel Hills Mall
CT
Meriden
Meriden Square
FL
Leesburg
Lake Square Mall
FL
Port Richey
Gulf View Square
IA
Muscatine
Muscatine Mall
IL
Bloomingdale
Stratford Square Mall
IL
Forsyth
Hickory Point Mall
IN
Marion
Five Points Mall
IN
Warsaw
Marketplace Shopping Center
MD
Salisbury
The Centre at Salisbury
MI
Marquette
Westwood Plaza
MN
Worthington
Northland Mall
MS
Gautier
Singing River Mall
MS
Natchez
Natchez Mall
MT
Butte
Butte Plaza Shopping Center
MT
Cut Bank
(N/A)
NC
Kinston
Vernon Park Mall
NJ
Burlington
Burlington Center
NJ
Phillipsburg
Phillipsburg Mall
OH
Wooster
Wayne Towne Plaza
PA
Exton
Exton Square Mall
PA
Hazleton
Laurel Mall
PA
Washington
Washington Mall
TN
Chattanooga
Northgate Mall
VA
Bristol
Bristol Mall
VA
Norfolk
Military Circle Mall
WI
Fond Du Lac
Forest Mall
WI
Janesville
Janesville Mall
WI
Rhinelander
Lincoln Plaza Center
WI
Rice Lake
Cedar Mall
WI
Wausau
Wausau Mall

*UPDATE*
Deal Exposures:


Shopping Center Deal Loan PCT Deal
Military Circle Mall GMACC 2004-C2 9.80%
The Centre at Salisbury JPMCC 2006-LDP7 3.70%
Hickory Point Mall BSCMS 2006-PW11 1.90%
Laurel Mall BSCMS 2007-PW17 1.70%
Wausau Mall WFRBS 2011-C4 1.30%
Marketplace Shopping Center CGCMT 2004-C2 0.90%
Bristol Mall BACM 2006-5 0.90%
Wayne Towne Plaza MSC 2007-IQ15 0.60%
Natchez Mall CGCMT 2006-C4 0.50%
Lincoln Plaza Center GSMS 2006-GG6 0.10%

Source: Credit Suisse.