Tuesday, March 24, 2009

PPIP, REIT maturities, Retail Severities, Premier Properties

Goldman talks their CRE book (hopefully, otherwise their conclusions are insane).

->I'll post a more useful analysis on REIT maturities here in the next couple of weeks.

S&P adjusts retail outlook, but still not negative enough. Looking for 44% loss severities. Also noted ICSC is predicting 73,000 stores will close 1H ’09.

Chris P White's Premier Properties was in the news again yesterday.

Obviously, the big news is the Treasury's plan to buy 'toxic assets'. My initial digest of it was that it would fix all the problems, but on further reflection, it's less powerful than it seems for CMBS. It should still lead to sustained, but measured, tightening, however, it only includes currently-rated AAAs for CMBS, which excludes nearly every AJ (as soon as S&P/Fitch start their downgrades). It could be a boon for New Issue by helping to clean the overhand on IB's loan conduits that never got securitized, and might lead to some large loan deals. I still don't have the details on whether positions will be marked daily and margin-called, how much it will cost and investor, and whether or not there will be term-matching. Not to mention whether the evil investors will be burned at the stake if they profit from this program.

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