We still have about $2.3 billion in REIT CMBS maturities over the rest of 2009, and $6.5 billion in 2010. Of the total from those two years, $6.5 billion is in the Conduit universe. The plot thickens past 2010, but this is a humble blog with no revenue other than ads (that no one clicks on). Please email email@example.com for further analysis and wiring details :).
There are actually some '06 vintage deals with heavy concentrations maturing in 2010 - these are 5-year loans originated in late '05. They include the Colonial Mall Glynn Place ($23mm - MLCFC 2006-1, CLP), Kenwood Town Center ($147mm - MLCFC 2006-1, GGP), and Alderwood Mall ($108.6mm - MSC 2006-T21, GGP).
Deals with heavy concentrations (>10%) of maturing REIT debt between now and end of 2010 include:
|DEAL||REIT Loans Mat. '09 & '10|
On the one hand, you have original LTVs that are very low (between 55 and 68%), appreciation in all of these loans (even the shortest), high DSCR ratios, etc. and one would expect that these loans would have no problem refinancing in any market. On the other hand, you have the experience we just witnessed with GGP loans that also met all of those criteria. It seems the salient point in regards to the CMBS deals are the threat of extension, rather than actual losses, so you like IO and credit, and don't like short dupers on these deals.
The obvious other angle is to look at which REITs have the toughest mortgage maturity schedule. Some more work is required to fully analyze this, but a quick look and some challengeable (I might be making up a word here or there) data from Bloomberg, highlights a few names
|REIT||CMBS Maturing '09 and '10|
|CBL & Assoc.||166,635,022|
GGP is an obvious winner, but DDR has 21 properties with loans maturing over the next 18 months accounting for over 9% of their total debt outstanding, and nearly 20% of their CMBS debt outstanding. The next one in the list is Regency with $388mm maturing, over 18% of their total debt, and more than 40% of their outstanding CMBS.
Obviously there is much more to be done to really identify the right place to make a play here, but we'll post follow-ups. For what it is worth, I think the equity play is a little hard, because given what is priced into CMBS (despite the rally), equities are too rich, but all the names above are represented in the SRS ETF - probably better to short particular names though, if you're going the equity route. I think the plays are in the debt space. This is actually part 2 on Maturity Waves - see Part I, Wave of Mutiliation, published back in November 2008.
*I corrected the ticker to CLP for Colonial Properties Trust...