Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Calm before the storm

A few news outlets were running this story the last few days. Maturities are really going to hurt this year - especially 5 year maturities that are hitting us from the peak of the bubble.

The bad news is that 5 & 7 year loans in the fixed-rate Conduit universe peaked at 40% of total issuance in 2005 (i.e. 5s are mostly gone now, 7s will hit in 2012), and then slowed to roughly 25% of total issuance in 2006 and 2007. Also, 2012 is the year that fully extended floaters issued by both banks and CMBS lenders will come due, and most of these were on projects that were not yet stabilized. And further, 2002 was actually a slow year for 10-year loans (<$50 billion), so its not like these maturities are a bunch of well underwritten, highly amortized, low LTV loans.

I don't have an updated version of these maturity charts - if someone has them, please pass them along. Thanks.


Anonymous said...

Bloomberg: "Hotel Lenders Avoid Foreclosures as $17.5 Billion in Loans Loom"

Good article (10pager) on state of hotel loan market. Good stuff that expands on a post Anon made a about a month ago.

crabsofsteel said...

MSC 2007-T25: liquidation of 1 REO loan writes down classes F and below. Thwack!