Monday, April 15, 2013

Boston Attack Exposure

The explosions in Boston are horrific and will go down as another sad day in this country's history.

However, staring at CMBS loans all day leads my thoughts immediately to potential exposure. It is probably a little too soon, but nonetheless there are likely to be lasting consequences to the impacted area.

The two primary explosions that caused the most damage were in the 600 and 700 blocks of Boylston Street (specifically the addresses listed were 671 and 755). The only CMBS property in the immediate vicinity is the 761- 793 Boylston Street loan in CGCMT 2007-C6, representing 0.24% of the deal. In the horrific photos, which are widely available elsewhere, you'll notice a line of stores behind the aftermath starting with a Crate & Barrel on the left side (West) of the images, and continuing right (East) you'll see an Atlantic Fish Co, Forum (the blast appeared to be centered here), and Starbucks. The building with the Crate & Barrel and all the buildings to the left (West) of it back to Fairfield Street are part of this collateral property.

Only three other loans have properties within a few blocks, and both are approximately 1-3 blocks away from the attacks:
GSMS 2007-EOP - 500 Boylston (JV) (I don't *think* this has been released)
CGCMT 2007-C6 - The Wesleyan Building (0.20% of deal)
JPMCC 2007-LD11 - 399 Boylston (1.45% of deal)

Each of these are office and less likely to be impacted then street level retail.


crabsofsteel said...

There's a parallel in MSC 2012-CKSV, where an insane gunman killed two people at the Clackamas Town Center, one of the two collateral loans.

Anonymous said...

Apologies for being naive, but where does one get such data? Is it publicly available what securities correspond to what addresses? If you could point me towards such datasources, I'd appreciate it, just for personal curiosity - Thanks!

Concrete Jungle said...

It's "public", but you are going to have to pay to get the data in a format where you can use it for analysis or even looking up properties. used to have a free lookup - you have to sign up for it, it appears, and I don't know how in depth you can get. will sometimes have the monthly filings and prosup, but it's nearly impossible to use the data in the format they provide.

Pay providers range from Bloomberg, to Intex, to Trepp. Bloomberg has come a long way, and are the cheapest provider, plus they have much more, but you're looking at 25k per year for a single terminal. Trepp has a cheaper version that lets you look at property data, but I can't use that version for anything we do. Intex is probably the best. Several third parties (and most Wall Street firms) have applications that sit on top of Intex data and subroutines to model their own.

Finally, CMBS loans only account for approximately a quarter of the CRE loan universe, so not every property is going to be in any of those sources.

If you just have one or two, email and he'll look them up for you. He really enjoys doing little side projects like that with no possible benefit to himself. He lives to serve.

Concrete Jungle said...

To follow-up further, does let you see loan list. I.e. here is the WBCMT 2007-C30 deal loan list:

Anonymous said...

Awesome, thank you very much Concrete!