Lakeforest Mall - BSCMS 2005-T20 $121mm

Reuters had a headline grabbing (give it time, it'll make its way up the headlines) story out today about a Simon Mall about to default.

Default, or not? Occupancy is rough at only 65%, but they're still covering at 1.74x. Any quick review of cash flows and the mall is likely worth far more than the 55% OLTV senior mortgage on it. The maturity date is July 2010, so the real problem is what is going to happen then - refinanced and paid off, or extended.

Seems like a tough call. If you use GGP as a guideline - highly performing assets, maturity dates looming - it will get modified.

The scary part is the special's comments where they apparently do not know the anchor tenants (none of which are part of the collateral). I refer them to the Mall's tenant directory and map.