GGP Shortfalls Coming to a Bond Near You

Most of these appear to be automatic ARAs of 25%, but a few are smaller. You can see that the servicers reversed a few of the ASERs from the prior month, and will likely do the same for the ones we see here. All of these are as of the October pay date.

Deal (s)	Loan	ARA ($mm)	Outstanding Bal. ($mm)	ASER ($mm)
GCCFC 2004-GG2, GCCFC 2005-GG3	Grand Canal Shoppes at the Venetian	43.80	$ 393.75	0.00
GECMC 2005-C3, GECMC 2005-C4	Oglethorpe Mall	17.54	$ 280.21	71.50
COMM 2005-LP5, GECMC 2005-C1	Lakeside Mall	22.54	$ 179.37	-87.50
WBCMT 2006-C26	The Woodlands Mall	45.96	$ 173.68	0.00
LBUBS 2006-C1	Chapel Hills Mall	28.91	$ 115.65	0.00
BSCMS 2003-BA1A, CSFB 2005-C3	Southland Center Mall	26.99	$ 107.80	-115.75
LBUBS 2004-C4	Town East Mall	26.30	$ 105.18	0.00
GECMC 2005-C4	Grand Traverse Mall	21.17	$ 84.56	88.51
MLMT 2004-KEY2	Crossroads Center	20.94	$ 84.31	0.00
LBUBS 2001-C3	Vista Ridge Mall	20.09	$ 80.35	0.00
GECMC 2005-C1	Ward Centers	14.57	$ 58.29	-56.58
CSFB 2004-C2	Valley Hills Mall	14.14	$ 56.56	0.00
LBUBS 2000-C5	Gallery at Harborplace	13.52	$ 53.77	0.00
MLCFC 2006-4	Northgate Mall	11.19	$ 44.72	-57.04

The CMBS market is taking a dive the last couple of days. We're about 100 bps wider on the week, and, say, 130 bps wider since late October in A4s. Many AJs are back in the h40s, after flirting with h50s/l60s.