Analysts at Deutsche Bank found that the number of new transfers into special servicing will continue to outpace commercial loan workouts. But once properties are ready for liquidation, valuations on commercial real estate are missing the mark, according to Deutsche Bank. More recent appraisals are needed on these properties to narrow the gap between liquidation expenses and proceeds.
The analysts projected an 18% delinquency rate on CMBS.
There we have it - a realistic delinquency rate - 18%. I believe that number.
If you've been watching the MSM, the WSJ, CNN, Fortune etc. all had articles over the last couple of weeks talking about the "accidental recovery in CMBS", and shiny unicorns that shit rainbows that taste like skittles, etc. etc.
I almost sold all CMBS just based on the CNN article alone - they highlight Hartford for pete's sake. You see something that rosy, written by someone who obviously knows little about the world in general and less about CMBS, highlighting "good" companies that were really the "bad" ones - well, you just have to interpret the opposite of how they intend to get anywhere close to reality.