Saturday, April 24, 2010

The insanity!

The WSJ had a cute little article and imagery regarding CMBS loan mods. Nothing groundbreaking, but I didn't want to be accused of missing a story about CMBS in the MSM again.

There was a reminder in there that Fitch's highest loss projection on any one deal is just 11.7%. This number is trotted out right before they compare it to an annualized default rate, but describe it as a cumulative default rate (comparing it to a Loss rate, nonetheless). To cement their lack of understanding in the CMBS market, they later make a reference to the early-90s, which had an AVERAGE loss rate of 8% (and they think Fitch's CMBS worst deal forecast of 11.7% is reasonable enough to put into print).

1 comment:

crabsofsteel said...

Fitch is usually late to the game, and proves it once again. MSC 07-IQ14 looks like it will lose 15% even with very conservative loss estimates on the largest of the troubled loans in the deal, unless every bad loan gets hope-noted. City View Center?? Complete donut.