There was a reminder in there that Fitch's highest loss projection on any one deal is just 11.7%. This number is trotted out right before they compare it to an annualized default rate, but describe it as a cumulative default rate (comparing it to a Loss rate, nonetheless). To cement their lack of understanding in the CMBS market, they later make a reference to the early-90s, which had an AVERAGE loss rate of 8% (and they think Fitch's CMBS worst deal forecast of 11.7% is reasonable enough to put into print).
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1 comment:
Fitch is usually late to the game, and proves it once again. MSC 07-IQ14 looks like it will lose 15% even with very conservative loss estimates on the largest of the troubled loans in the deal, unless every bad loan gets hope-noted. City View Center?? Complete donut.
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