Sunday, May 16, 2010

We Are Nashville... CMBS loans.

I am a big fan of Nashville, although I'm an interloper and typically swoop in for a long weekend to see friends, listen to music, and live life. Nashville is different then the other places I've always liked to visit on a regular basis - it's full of real people (albeit some are of mythical proportions), it's a little grimy, there's southern-flavored hockey, pick up trucks the same age as me are prevalent, and jeans and cowboy hats are just as acceptable as tight leather and lip rings.

So, after a week of listening to the plights of friends & family, seeing pictures of destroyed vintage guitar collections, wondering about the hole-in-the-walls that I enjoyed over the years, curious how my favorite Rachels are doing... My wife, a former Nashvegas local, says to me this morning in the kitchen - "most of those places didn't have flood insurance". And, the lightbulb went off (two weeks late, but at least it still goes off occasionally) - CMBS exposure! Duh! Has anyone seen a good list from our well-funded sell-side research colleagues?

This is a very incomplete first cut - I'll have to work on this some more and will post some updates if anyone seems interested and as I get it together. After spending a couple of hours on this, I realize that the damage is far worse than I had anticipated, despite numerous descriptions from friends in the area. I really just assumed they were over-reacting given it was their backyard, but the lack of MSM coverage is astounding given the damage.

You can click here, for an interactive map of CMBS loans in Nashville. Click on the little pins for loan name and other info.

This map doesn't include all the loans outside of Nashville that are likely affected, and I didn't scrub the data for innacuracies or missing fields.

As you can see below, (Google earth plug-in care of PhillipGalbreath), the flooding really stomped on some areas, and then just skipped over others. Note that the map is incomplete. Downtown Nashville is all flooded, which is not shown well - LP stadium, the train stations, everything is underwater down there...

LP Stadium is a big bowl of Cumberland Soup

Here is a great picture of Rutledge Hill in BACM 2007-3 - it's on the left hand side in the background. Picture from kelseywinns.

This is all very incomplete. Hendersonville, for instance, was apparently slammed by the flood as well. I called a lawyer friend (if you can call lawyers friends) there today, but haven't heard back. It is East of Nashville.

Going southeast towards Murphreesboro, again, slammed hard by the flooding. I-24 was completely underwater with only the tops of vehicles visible in the news footage at the Blue Hole interchange. I saw some video footage of that exit - sorry no picture or link.

If you the owner of The Marketplace on Charlotte Pike in COMM 2004-LB4A, you might be screwed. Likely flooded, likely no flood insurance, and loan was performing.

On the other hand, if you're one of the 35 motel/hotel CMBS borrowers in the area including a number of Lightstone-owned ESAs, or Red Roof Inns, that were not performing and fortunate enough to have flood insurance, you may have just found your exit strategy.

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