NREI reports, that Trepp reports, that Balloon defaults are slowing. Nearly 50% of maturities paid off on time in July, versus less than 40% in June, and it is the highest percentage since 2008.
They also touch on the topic that CMBS is obviously gone in a big way, and new private lending is filling the gap - a topic frequently discussed amongst all the RE guys out there trying to reinvent themselves. They also note that most of the problems refinancing are more on the B & C assets, and that trophy assets are not having the same issues obtaining financing.
One thing that is not clear, is how harsh they were with the Balloon Default definition - for instance, if a balloon paid off 1 month after it was due, its probably not fair to count that as a balloon default if it had a material impact on the numbers. I'd probably put a 3 month band around the maturity date, perhaps even 6 in this environment. Stuff happens that slows down refis.