There are a few ways to look at exposure to events such as a bankruptcy, but given the average store footprint is substantial (let's call it 20k-50k sq ft) a big dark space is going to destroy a lot of these retail centers.
The deals with >10% exposure to a Border's, by non-defeased loan size, are:
- CSFB 2004-C5 - 19.70%
- WBCMT 2004-C14 - 15.36%
- DLJCM 1998-CF1 - 14.50%
- ASC 1997-D5 - 13.68%
- JPMCC 2001-CIB3 - 13.10%
- CSFB 2001-CK3 - 11.47%
- JPMCC 2006-CB14 - 10.98%
There are some real gems too, such as CSFB 2003-CPN1 Northgate Mall which is scheduled to mature in November 2012, is already behind on the mortgage with a 0.93x DSCR, and a 156% LTV.
*If I were a fancy Wall Street firm or data provider, I'd have a cleaner and scrubbed set of data, but as it were, I'm using Bloomberg and I didn't scrub the data so I'm certain there are some cases where I have a "Mexican Across the Border Restaurant" instead of "Border's Books". Also, I see several Border's Books that just got missed for some reason. Further, if they're not a top 3 tenant (like in a mall), they don't show up. And, finally, if it is a single loan with multiple properties it's not fair to target it using the whole loan approach. For a fully scrubbed guaranteed accuracy list, please send an email for PayPal instructions for the $25,000 fee and we'll get right on it.
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FYI, Deutsche Bank came out with an exposure list today, but they took the approach of measuring exposures by including the percentage square feet occupied by Borders, whereas I took the full loan balance divided by the deal size. Both have their merits, but the key difference of opinion is that DB considers them a junior anchor which will have little impact, while I keep thinking of the Borders in the shopping center near Riverchase Galleria (in Birmingham, which we wrote about recently) which is going to leave a gaping hole in the middle of the shopping center and put the adjacent stores out of business.
Also, Deutsche Bank did a much more thorough job and caught a few that I'd missed - like the one in DBUBS 2011-LC1A (0.1%, $2.1mm, 6k sq ft)
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