http://www.reitwrecks.com/2008/11/tarp-torpor-torpedoes-reits.html#links
REITWrecks is one of my favorite blogs, although it wouldn't hurt my opinion of them one bit if they published more frequently.
A couple of comments though on this posting. The quote from Green Street Advisors' Mike Kirby only shows that Mr. Kirby has not looked at the data. There is not really that many CMBS loans maturing in 2010, even considering the hobbled loan market - its one of the more docile years, although 2011 and 2012 start to get hairy. Less than 8% of the outstanding CMBS loans mature in 2009 and 2010, combined. The lending market is not shut down, but if it remains hobbling along until 2010, some loans will have issues and will likely be extended. Most of the CMBS loans maturing in 2010 were originated in 2000, only some from 2005, none from 2006 or 2007 (at least not from the Conduit market, maybe a few floaters).
Everyone else is right on. Prices on AAAs dropped even lower since Pendegrast and Wheeler's comments. You really would have to see every commercial loan default, and have horrific recoveries, to justify these levels. Even then, it frankly takes a year or two to repo, market, and sell a foreclosed property - some of the current pay and front pay bonds, yielding 13+% more than Treasuries, get paid off even if you assume 100% Defaults and 99% losses!
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I altered the comment regarding Green Street's comment on maturing loans - their wording was not as strong, nor incorrect, as my paraphrasing of it. The maturity wave of near-term impending doom, though, leaves much to be desired, and I don't think it will impact much until 2011.
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