Friday, April 24, 2009

We all make mistakes...

On this blog, there are various ads (which generate near-$0 because no one clicks them) and news links generated by google based on the content. So, I regularly click the news links because many times they are pertinent. Further, everyone makes mistakes, current author included, so I will not point them all out just to be mean, although the below is from the WSJ so I'll give $1 to whomever finds the most errors in this report:

US CMBS Deliquencies Up 18% In March; Only Health-Care Ppties Exempt


Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said the delinquency rate on U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, surged 28% just in March as the figure quickly approaches the peak following the last recession.

Commercial delinquencies, which long lagged the problems in the residential market, have been spiking since mid-2008 as the recession deepened, vacancies increased and new owners have been unable to refinance mortgages.

The rate climbed to 1.85% from 1.57% in February, putting the figure near the December 2003 peak of 1.96%. All property types, except health care, saw higher delinquency rates and delinquent amounts.

The office sector's delinquencies rate surged 48% just last month, while the amount of retail loans behind - $3.46 billion - overtook multifamily ones as the biggest source of delinquencies. A total of 98 retail loans became delinquent in March, with some related out-of-business chains like Circuit City and Linens 'n Things.

S&P said it continued to downgrade CMBS last month, cutting 130 ratings, while upgrading two. During the first quarter, 96% of 402 ratings actions were downgrades.

-By Kathy Shwiff, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5975;

I count 7.
  1. Deliquencies is not a word
  2. PPTIEs is not a word
  3. the delinquencies are either up 18% or 28% - which one?
  4. Delinquencies are not approaching the peak of the last recession. The 2001 recession had relatively low delinquencies (half today's levels), and the early 1990s had much higher delinquencies than 1.87%.
  5. Oh. She thinks there was a recession in 2003.
  6. A "surge" of 28 bps is not a surge (even the ironically named Glacial Surge represents an increase in velocity of a glacier up to 100 times it's normal speed)
  7. There were over 1500 CMBS rating actions in the first quarter.

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